August 4, 2023

URSABLOG: Will Dry Bulk Shipping Exist in August 3023?

What can we expect from the Panamax dry cargo spot freight market in the last quarter of this year? Moreover, what are the projections for its performance in the first quarter of 2024, and what will this market look like a year from now?

Moving on to the secondhand ship values, can we anticipate a decrease by the end of this year? Or, will the values persist at their current levels? If a decrease occurs, what percentage change could we expect? Conversely, if there is an increase, how significant could the change be? Additionally, what could be the possible value of a ten-year-old TESS58 Supramax bulk carrier six months down the line?

How will the integration of shipping into the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) influence chartering negotiations and freight rates for voyages to and from ports within the European Union? Moreover, what will be the wider impact on the overall Atlantic freight market? Is there a possibility of a two-tier market emergence, or would the impact go unnoticed?

The task of forecasting the dry bulk freight market, and indeed any financial market, has a lengthy history that goes back hundreds of years. However, as you might expect, the methods of forecasting have changed over time with the evolution of economics as a discipline, the introduction of new mathematical and statistical techniques, and the advent of high-powered computing technologies.

The practice has progressed from mere speculation or guessing to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH); from fundamental analysis to technical and quantitative analysis. It has seen behavioral economics and finance challenging the EMH to the current era of machine learning and AI. We, as participants and albeit small but influential actors in the dry bulk freight market, should have an informed perspective on the current state, historical progression, and future prospects of our market. Generally, the scope of our expectations extends to a few months or at most, a couple of years into the future. But what about what lies ahead in the next 10, 30, 50, 100, or even 1000 years?

2035

1. Will autonomous cargo ships be the industry standard for dry bulk shipping by 2035? Likelihood: Very Low

2. Will AI and machine learning algorithms revolutionize freight rate projections in the dry bulk shipping industry? Likelihood: Moderate

3. Will dry bulk shipping have significantly reduced its carbon footprint by 2035? Likelihood: Moderate

4. How likely is the adoption of renewable energy sources (like solar, wind) in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Low

5. Will the demand for coal and other fossil fuel commodities have significantly decreased by 2035 due to the global push towards renewable energy sources? Likelihood: Low

6. Will blockchain technology be integral to dry bulk shipping operations for increased efficiency and transparency? Likelihood: Moderate

7. How likely is it that by 2035 we will see a significant increase in the demand for the dry bulk shipping of raw materials for the production of renewable energy infrastructure like wind turbines and solar panels? Likelihood: High

8. How likely are global trade policies to significantly impact the dry bulk shipping routes? Likelihood: Very High

9. Will stricter emission standards push ship owners towards cleaner fuels or retrofitting older vessels? Likelihood: Moderate

10. Will dry ports become more prevalent in managing dry bulk logistics and supply chain efficiency? Likelihood: High

2050

11. Will dry bulk shipping be completely carbon neutral by 2050? Likelihood: Moderate

12. How likely is it that renewable energy-powered propulsion systems, like wind-assist or solar, will be common in dry bulk shipping by 2050? Likelihood: High

13. Could 3D printing technologies significantly decrease the demand for certain dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: Very Low

14. Could drone ships, fully automated and unmanned, be the norm in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Very Low

15. How likely is it that dry bulk shipping will play a key role in the global recycling economy? Likelihood: Very High

16. Could climate change and sea-level rise significantly affect dry bulk shipping routes and infrastructure? Likelihood: Very High

17. Could genetically modified super crops impact the volume and diversity of agricultural commodities in dry bulk shipping? High

18. Will human workers be mostly replaced by AI and robots in the dry bulk shipping industry? Likelihood: Low

19. Will the Suez and Panama canals still play a major role in global dry bulk shipping, or will new routes have emerged due to melting polar ice? Likelihood: Moderate

20. Will the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage become significant shipping lanes for dry bulk carriers due to global warming? Likelihood: Moderate

2065

21. Will AI completely govern the route planning and navigation of dry bulk shipping by 2065? Likelihood: High

22. Will seaborne dry bulk shipping be replaced by hyperloop systems for continental transport of commodities? Likelihood: Very Low

23. Is there a likelihood that climate change will significantly impact the availability and demand for certain dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: Very High

24. Will circular economies be prevalent, decreasing the need for certain raw materials in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Moderate

25. Will significant advancements in battery technology enable electric propulsion for large dry bulk carriers? Likelihood: Moderate

26. How likely is it that the dry bulk shipping industry will be impacted by the discovery and exploitation of new mineral resources on the ocean floor or other celestial bodies? Likelihood: Low

27. Could carbon-negative shipping, through technologies that remove more CO2 than they produce, be a reality? Likelihood: Low

28. Will there be an overhaul of maritime laws to adapt to autonomous shipping and advanced technologies? Likelihood: High

29. Could advanced recycling and waste management techniques significantly decrease the need for dry bulk shipping of certain commodities? Likelihood: Low

30. Could there be a need for dry bulk shipping in space to support human settlements on other planets or space stations? Likelihood: Low

2080

31. Is it possible that there will be underwater routes for dry bulk shipping to avoid surface weather conditions? Likelihood: Very Low

32. Could dry bulk shipping be conducted by fleets of unmanned, solar-powered drones? Likelihood: Low

33. Will space-based cargo transport be in regular use, impacting the dry bulk shipping industry? Likelihood: Very Low

34. How likely is it that shifts in global energy sources will fundamentally alter the dry bulk shipping landscape? Likelihood: Very High

35. How likely is it that due to advancements in technology, dry bulk shipping will be able to achieve real-time tracking and condition monitoring of all cargoes? Likelihood: Very High

36. Will the construction of new megacities or the abandonment of existing coastal cities due to sea-level rise affect the infrastructure and routes of dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Moderate

37. Will quantum computing revolutionize logistics management in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Moderate

38. How likely is it that genetic engineering of crops and livestock will impact the demand for certain dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: High

39. Will climate engineering efforts such as geoengineering affect ocean currents and winds, thereby impacting dry bulk shipping routes? Likelihood: Very Low

40. Will artificially intelligent predictive systems completely eliminate the risk of market fluctuations in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Low

2100

41. Will dry bulk shipping, as we know it today, continue to exist, or will it undergo a complete transformation due to technology and environmental considerations? Likelihood: High (indicating that it will still exist in a form recognizable to us)

42. Could space-based cargo routes be a reality for the shipping industry? Likelihood: Very Low

43. Is it possible that terrestrial bulk shipping could be mostly replaced by air or space-based freight systems? Likelihood: Very Low

44. Will the dry bulk shipping industry be dominated by AI-controlled super fleets? Likelihood: Very Low

45. Could advancements in material science render traditional dry bulk commodities obsolete? Likelihood: Moderate

46. Could the use of nuclear energy in shipping become a reality due to advancements in safe and clean nuclear technology? Likelihood: Moderate

47. Will rising sea levels necessitate a complete redesign of dry bulk shipping infrastructure? Likelihood: High

48. Could major shifts in global population and economy result in new primary routes for dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: High

49. How likely is it that synthetic biology could produce commodities currently shipped as dry bulk, significantly changing the industry? Likelihood: Moderate

50. Will virtual reality and telepresence significantly reduce the need for physical shipping of certain dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: Low

2150

51. Will the dry bulk shipping industry still exist, or will most goods be produced locally with advanced technologies? Likelihood: Low

52. Could transport of physical goods be replaced by transmitting data and replicating objects at the destination (something akin to Star Trek’s replicators)? Likelihood: Very Low

53. How likely is it that advancements in quantum entanglement will allow teleportation of dry bulk goods? Likelihood: Very Low

54. Given the advancements in vertical farming and hydroponics, how likely is it that the demand for traditional agricultural commodities transported through dry bulk shipping will decrease significantly? Likelihood: Moderate

55. How likely is it that advanced waste recycling technologies could convert food and other waste into animal feed, reducing the need for traditional feed commodities in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: High

56. Will there be large-scale colonization of other planets, leading to an interplanetary dry bulk shipping industry? Likelihood: Low

57. Could a decline in global population lead to a significant decrease in the demand for dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: Low

58. Could innovations in 3D and 4D printing technology at a large scale eliminate the need for transporting certain dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: High

59. Will underwater cities necessitate a new form of aquatic bulk transport? Likelihood: Very Low

60. How likely is it that deep-sea mining will become a major source of dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: Moderate

2200

61. Is it possible that dry bulk shipping will be carried out by teleportation networks? Likelihood: Very Low

62. Will there be interstellar shipping routes due to human colonization of other star systems? Likelihood: Very Low

63. Will major geopolitical shifts, potentially even the unification of Earth under a single global government, have a significant impact on dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Low

64. How likely is it that humanity’s evolution into a Type II civilization on the Kardashev scale would significantly affect the structure and purpose of the shipping industry? Likelihood: Very Low

65. Will a fundamental shift towards a non-material based economy due to advancements in technology render dry bulk shipping obsolete? Likelihood: Moderate

66. Will the Earth’s changing geography due to climate change and sea level rise necessitate a complete overhaul of dry bulk shipping routes and infrastructure? Likelihood: High

67. Is it possible that the complete digitization of the economy eliminates the need for physical transport of commodities? Likelihood: Very Low

68. How likely is it that new methods of energy production, such as nuclear fusion or antimatter, will decrease the demand for traditional energy commodities in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Moderate

69. How likely is it that advances in AI and automation will lead to the obsolescence of human roles in dry bulk shipping? Likelihood: Moderate

70. How likely is it that the discovery and colonization of resource-rich extraterrestrial bodies will drastically change the supply and demand dynamics of dry bulk commodities? Likelihood: Low

3023

71. Will physical goods transportation still exist or will we have achieved complete digitization of matter? Likelihood: Very Low

72. Is it possible that dry bulk shipping has expanded to encompass multiple star systems due to interstellar colonization? Likelihood: Low

73. How likely is it that we will harness the energy of black holes or other astronomical phenomena, thus eliminating the need for traditional energy commodities? Likelihood: Very Low

74. Could advanced nanotechnology be used to create any required commodity instantly, eliminating the need for shipping? Likelihood: Low

75. Will advancements in terraforming technology lead to large-scale alteration of planets and thus affect the dynamics of interplanetary shipping? Likelihood: Very Low

76. Could the discovery of a parallel universe or alternate dimensions introduce new types of commodities and radically change the dry bulk shipping industry? Likelihood: Very Low

77. Will humanity have evolved into a post-physical existence, eliminating the need for physical goods transport? Likelihood: Very Low

78. How likely is it that quantum teleportation will be the primary mode of shipping goods across vast interstellar distances? Likelihood: Low

79. Given the potential for radical life extension or even human digitalization, how likely is it that population growth or changes in consumption patterns will dramatically shift the demand for dry bulk goods? Likelihood: Very High

80. Is it possible that humanity has discovered a way to manipulate time, thus affecting the delivery and distribution of dry bulk goods? Likelihood: Very Low

The probability allocated to each question is entirely subjective, possibly influenced by a slow Friday, and I cordially invite your debate. Moreover, as we increasingly distance ourselves from the present, the questions that arise begin to shift away from monetary considerations, touching instead on the fundamental essence of the industry’s very existence. This makes me wonder, isn’t this the same process occurring on a personal level as well?

To address the query in the title about whether dry bulk shipping will exist in a thousand years, the answer leans towards yes. Given that it has been around since time immemorial, it seems certain that it will continue to exist in some capacity through the ages. I’m fairly confident in that assertion.

At last, as we approach the height of the summer season, we take this chance to extend our wishes for a wonderful summer to all.

Dionysios Tsilioris