URSABLOG: Plumbing The Depths

One of the more striking features of the remains of the ancient and famous city of Mycenae in the Argolid (just north of Nafplio) is the cistern there. You may think I’m being a bit of a nerd; surely the Lion Gate, the tombs, and the treasures found there are amazing too?

There is no doubt that the site of the former city is impressive and awe-inspiring, but for me the cistern is a physical connection to the real people of the Bronze Age, who, like us, needed water to survive. It helps me put the plays of great Athenian tragedians into some kind of context and confirms my suspicion that we humans are more or less the same, wherever and whenever we were born. It may also explain why plays like Agamemnon are eternal.

Mycenae was always known; ancient writers like Pausanias visited the place, but for centuries the remains were treated as legendary ruins, and not a place where real people lived and died. It was not until Heinrich Schliemann turned up in 1876, and began to dig, that the true significance of the place revealed itself.

What the excavations revealed was evidence of a powerful Bronze Age civilisation (c. 1600–1100 BCE) that was wealthy, hierarchical, warlike, trading (and fighting) across the Aegean. Schliemann’s discoveries validated the myth, that a rich warrior elite could plausibly sail to Troy, sack it, and come back and be murdered in the bath. But his, and later archaeologists’ work also proved that Greek civilisation didn’t begin in the classical period, but had deep, complex Bronze Age roots. It was an already interconnected world – on edge and confrontational, as well as sophisticated and aspirational – and not all heroics and poetry. The people of Mycenae had to be ready not just to attack, but also to defend, and be able to survive when under siege.

The cistern is a case in point: it’s an underground water reservoir, carved deep into the rock beneath the citadel. Rainwater was channelled into it and stored there, ensuring a reliable water supply during siege. To really get an idea of the impressive foresight, technological sophistication and craftsmanship behind it, you have to clamber down the narrow staircase – about 99 steps – the temperature dropping as the light quickly fades into pitch-black darkness. Despite the humid, claustrophobic atmosphere, it feels functional rather than monumental, defensive rather than ceremonial. The importance of water for besieged city-dwellers cannot be overstated; without it they would be weakened and overcome.

The cistern is believed to have been constructed around the end of the 13th century BCE, suggesting a civilisation preparing for coming instability. And as impressive as it is, Mycenae and its civilisation nonetheless collapsed into darkness shortly after.

++++

Until the recent US/Israeli/Iranian war broke out, China had been steadily accumulating crude oil and increasing its reserves: their stocks of crude oil apparently increased by 54 million tonnes during 2025 after a similar increase in 2024. The motivation behind this massive inventory build-up was thought to be part of a strategy to ensure emergency reserves in the event of future conflicts.

According to the invaluable and ever-resourceful John Kemp, China has been able to increase its crude inventories in 24 of the last 25 years, not only from imports, but also from their own domestic crude oil production. Building strategic reserves will enable its economy to keep functioning, and its armed forces to keep fighting in the event of future conflicts.

Mr Kemp has done well to piece together the jigsaw: China considers stocks of crude and refined products stored by importers, refiners and distributors as well as its own strategic reserves a state secret. Nonetheless the picture of consistent and steadily rising reserves is real, but the reasons behind it are more obscure. It may be explained in part by operational requirements stemming from the growing consumption of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products, but this consumption growth has slowed in recent years due to the rise of electric vehicles and gas-powered trucks.

As Mr Kemp points out:

The apparent increase in stocks during 2024 and again in 2025 is too large to be attributed to operational needs and commercial incentives alone.

The massive accumulation appears to be a precautionary measure in case imports are disrupted by sanctions or an embargo during any future conflict with the United States and its allies.

He wrote this on 15 February this year. Events since then have shown that China’s foresight and planning may not have been purely about planning for a future conflict with the US. It may have already felt that the normal supply of crude could be curtailed at any time for any number of reasons, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has certainly proven to be one of them. That the current situation is unprecedented was not a reason that it wouldn’t happen: all it took was an Israeli and US assault on Iran to prove otherwise. China was – inadvertently or otherwise – prepared, especially as it imports more than 70% of the crude processed in its refineries.

Dependence on foreign oil supply has long been identified as a critical issue for Chinese national security. The Communist Party’s Central Committee recently issued a call for “Building a Strong Energy Nation”:

“[E]nergy security and stability are of paramount importance to the national economy and people’s livelihoods, and are a matter of utmost national importance that cannot be ignored.”

“Currently, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, with technological revolutions and great power competition intertwined, deeply reshaping the global energy supply and demand landscape…. [There is] an urgent requirement for enhancing energy security and gaining the initiative in great power competition. Currently, frequent regional conflicts exacerbate geopolitical risks, and the United States continues to contain and suppress China, making the politicization and weaponization of energy issues more prominent.”

As I have said before, in order to understand what the Chinese government is doing, all you have to do is read what they write. They seem to have been very prescient in this case. But China is only following the precedent of Mycenae in making sure that they will not lack vital resources in times of strife, whatever the cause.

Mr Kemp’s own thesis in this article was that China was stockpiling oil in anticipation of an invasion of Taiwan:

China’s reliance on imported crude most of it arriving along sea lanes patrolled by the U.S. Navy and its allies has been identified by the government as one of the top threats to national security.

China’s economy and its warfighting ability would both be vulnerable to sanctions or an embargo in the event of a future conflict with the United States over Taiwan.

But – and not for one minute dismissing Mr Kemp’s analysis – it is quite possible that China had an eye on the bigger picture too. Maybe it wasn’t amassing crude oil inventory for the purpose of invading Taiwan, but because of what else was going on in the world, and wanted to maintain their own stability – strategic, political, financial – in case things got out of hand, as they have. But as China has sufficient reserves they can be firm in the face of pleas – or attempted blackmail – from the Trump administration to assist them in freeing the Strait of Hormuz.

++++

Xi Jinping is known to be a keen student of history, including ancient Greek history, but I wonder whether he is aware of the suggested reasons for the collapse of the Mycenaean civilisation:

–           They were highly centralised, dependent on palace administration, and controlled through bureaucratic systems

–           And when the palace went, despite the cistern, everything went: distribution of food, authority, the lot

–           The remaining elite became fractious, competitive and rebellious

Worse, for reasons that are not entirely clear, trade faltered. Trade mattered: tin (for that all-important bronze) had to be imported from the other side of the Aegean, and valuable luxury goods were bought and sold throughout the eastern Mediterranean. Bronze production declined, wealth concentration weakened and consequently the palaces lost economic control.

If this sounds like a classic supply chain collapse – or even a pre-Classical one – then that’s what it is. There is also – to add to a sense of déjà vu – growing evidence that climate stress and famine through drought cycles played a part too.

The Chorus at the beginning of Aeschylus’ Agamemnon says:

What comes next? I cannot see it, cannot say.

The strong techniques of Calchas do their work.

But Justice turns the balance scales,

sees that we suffer

and we suffer and we learn.

And we will know the future when it comes.

Greet it too early, weep too soon.

It all comes clear in the light of day.

Whatever preparations we make, and however we plan for the future, it is the things out of our hands that will ultimately define the trajectory of our personal destinies. That current events remind me of these eternal truths is not particularly reassuring.

Simon Ward